Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | SF -5000 USD +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +16 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | SF -17.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -16.7 (-0.7) | 147.4 (+26.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -16.3 (-0.3) | 146.6 (+27.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -14.6 (+1.4) | 146.5 (+27.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -15.5 (+0.5) | 148.0 (+26.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SF 92 – 79 USD |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SF 74 – 64 USD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SF 84 – 61 USD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SF 81 – 69 USD |
| Jan 12, 2024 | SF 83 – 63 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | USD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#57) | -4.9 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#81) | -0.18 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#86) | -0.35 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#99) | 0.486 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | USD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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