Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | USD +600 SF -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +23 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -14.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -12.5 (-10.5) | 145.5 (-0.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -13.1 (-9.9) | 143.8 (+1.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -14.2 (-8.8) | 144.3 (+0.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -13.0 (-10.0) | 145.3 (-0.3) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SF 92 – 79 USD |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SF 74 – 64 USD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SF 81 – 69 USD |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SF 95 – 79 USD |
| Jan 12, 2024 | SF 83 – 63 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-27 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-13 | 17-2 |
| Away | 0-12 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 69.6 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#304) | 8.8 (#64) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.67 (#350) | 1.87 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.80 (#337) | 2.18 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#344) | 0.580 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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