Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USD +195 SF -238 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +13 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -3.3 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (+18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -1.5 (-11.5) | 149.5 (+21.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -3.7 (-9.3) | 147.3 (+23.7) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -1.2 (-11.8) | 147.1 (+23.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -1.8 (-11.2) | 148.5 (+22.5) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | SF 74 – 64 USD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SF 84 – 61 USD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SF 81 – 69 USD |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SF 95 – 79 USD |
| Jan 12, 2024 | SF 83 – 63 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#221) | 2.7 (#129) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#227) | 0.36 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#219) | 0.60 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#264) | 0.507 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 63.7% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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