Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USD +400 SF -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +20 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SF -8.8 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -9.6 (-10.4) | 139.3 (+6.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -10.1 (-9.9) | 137.3 (+8.7) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -8.7 (-11.3) | 139.7 (+6.3) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -9.7 (-10.3) | 141.0 (+5.0) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | SF 92 – 79 USD |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SF 74 – 64 USD |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SF 84 – 61 USD |
| Jan 26, 2025 | SF 81 – 69 USD |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SF 95 – 79 USD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-5 |
| Home | 12-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#228) | 9.9 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#174) | 1.58 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#186) | 2.12 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#175) | 0.571 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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