Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | KC -120 DEN +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KC +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | DEN -0.8 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -0.7 (+13.3) | 157.3 (-1.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -0.5 (+13.5) | 161.3 (-5.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KC -0.0 (+14.0) | 159.2 (-3.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEN -0.0 (+14.0) | 157.7 (-1.7) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | DEN 69 – 61 KC |
| Dec 31, 2025 | DEN 87 – 74 KC |
| Feb 28, 2025 | KC 64 – 56 DEN |
| Jan 31, 2025 | DEN 69 – 68 KC |
| Mar 10, 2024 | DEN 61 – 60 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 6-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 82.1 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#266) | -0.8 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#295) | -0.43 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#286) | -0.52 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#304) | 0.471 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KC | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.2% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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