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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–14 on winners spread MAE 8.0 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Baylor @ UCF -4.0 145.4 36% 77–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia +11.4 108.5 85% 53–65 ✓
Wake Forest @ Pittsburgh +2.0 145.1 57% 72–77 ✓
Cincinnati @ West Virginia -8.6 143.5 22% 65–69 ✗
Wichita State @ Tulsa +2.6 149.5 59% 68–79 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina -0.7 137.7 48% 71–60 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +3.0 145.6 61% 73–80 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb +2.1 151.2 58% 73–80 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +12.1 136.4 86% 63–60 ✗
Army @ Colgate +14.0 120.6 90% 55–74 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh +5.7 139.6 70% 65–77 ✓
Chicago State @ Duquesne +15.2 131.4 92% 60–65 ✓
American University @ Lafayette +1.0 130.9 54% 69–66 ✗
La Salle @ Rhode Island +3.9 153.6 64% 69–71 ✓
Richmond @ Fordham -5.2 139.7 32% 83–69 ✓
George Mason @ Saint Joseph's +4.4 140.8 66% 73–75 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +9.8 135.9 81% 52–67 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer +2.8 135.4 60% 54–49 ✗
Furman @ The Citadel -2.2 146.4 42% 82–79 ✓
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina +5.3 145.0 69% 91–85 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Florida -1.6 156.0 44% 76–85 ✗
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville -2.8 141.1 40% 43–63 ✗
Indiana State @ Belmont -10.1 168.8 18% 78–72 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +13.4 170.4 89% 79–81 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +6.8 182.0 73% 94–91 ✗
Rice @ Memphis +16.2 156.1 93% 74–71 ✗
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +7.9 134.6 76% 76–75 ✗
UIC @ Evansville +1.4 140.6 55% 60–77 ✓
Valparaiso @ Drake +20.1 144.2 97% 70–81 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +7.7 143.1 76% 69–85 ✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +15.4 140.1 92% 72–80 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +4.5 141.7 66% 66–71 ✓
Providence @ UConn +12.2 139.5 87% 65–74 ✓
Penn State @ Rutgers +5.3 140.8 68% 61–46 ✗
Arkansas @ Missouri +5.0 146.4 67% 91–84 ✗
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State +7.1 150.3 74% 71–78 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Auburn +24.4 141.7 99% 54–81 ✓
UAB @ North Texas +10.3 133.6 83% 82–79 ✗
Boise State @ New Mexico +10.0 150.1 82% 86–78 ✗
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +13.2 134.5 89% 77–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay +17.0 131.5 94% 56–79 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +7.7 142.3 76% 66–75 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +9.7 134.3 81% 62–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.