Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Over |
| Money | LAF -105 AMER -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +3 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -0.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMER -0.8 (-2.2) | 131.2 (+3.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -0.4 (-3.4) | 131.2 (+3.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -0.9 (-3.9) | 131.6 (+3.4) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.4 (-2.6) | 132.4 (+2.6) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | AMER 75 – 61 LAF |
| Jan 31, 2026 | LAF 67 – 65 AMER |
| Mar 7, 2025 | AMER 71 – 69 LAF |
| Feb 10, 2025 | AMER 60 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 30, 2025 | AMER 75 – 68 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-10 | 8-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#300) | -5.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#287) | -1.47 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#297) | -1.65 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#273) | 0.420 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.9% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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