Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 113.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -1400 ND +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -12.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 107.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -11.0 (+1.0) | 124.4 (-6.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -10.0 (+2.0) | 123.1 (-5.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -10.4 (+1.6) | 124.7 (-6.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -9.7 (+2.3) | 123.7 (-5.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UVA 100 – 97 ND |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ND 74 – 59 UVA |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ND 76 – 54 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UVA 57 – 55 ND |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ND 69 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#69) | 0.1 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#41) | -0.42 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#56) | -0.35 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#40) | 0.481 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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