Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 116.5 Over |
| Money | ND +430 UVA -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +22 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -8.9 (+30.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 106.9 (+23.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -5.8 (+27.8) | 127.8 (+2.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -8.7 (+30.7) | 124.6 (+5.4) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -8.5 (+30.5) | 125.9 (+4.1) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -9.1 (+31.1) | 124.8 (+5.2) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UVA 100 – 97 ND |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ND 74 – 59 UVA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | UVA 65 – 53 ND |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UVA 57 – 55 ND |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ND 69 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 59.8 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#228) | 10.1 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#254) | 2.55 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#272) | 3.29 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#188) | 0.603 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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