Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ND +390 UVA -520 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 197 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -8.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+51.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.3 (+3.3) | 141.7 (+55.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.1 (+4.1) | 140.9 (+56.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.3 (+3.3) | 141.1 (+55.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.6 (+3.6) | 141.6 (+55.4) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | ND 74 – 59 UVA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | UVA 65 – 53 ND |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ND 76 – 54 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UVA 57 – 55 ND |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ND 69 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 30-6 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#86) | 18.7 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#73) | 3.16 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#68) | 4.11 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#71) | 0.631 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 40.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 44.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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