Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UVA +110 ND -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +15 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -1.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -0.1 (-14.9) | 129.3 (+3.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -1.1 (-16.1) | 127.8 (+5.2) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -0.2 (-15.2) | 132.8 (+0.2) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -0.8 (-15.8) | 132.3 (+0.7) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UVA 100 – 97 ND |
| Feb 1, 2024 | UVA 65 – 53 ND |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ND 76 – 54 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UVA 57 – 55 ND |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ND 69 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#123) | 6.7 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#114) | 0.01 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#103) | 0.52 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#136) | 0.496 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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