Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ND -5.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.7 (-0.7) | 129.4 (+4.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -4.7 (-0.7) | 128.1 (+5.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -5.5 (-1.5) | 130.8 (+3.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -5.7 (-1.7) | 129.3 (+4.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UVA 100 – 97 ND |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ND 74 – 59 UVA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | UVA 65 – 53 ND |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ND 76 – 54 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2023 | UVA 57 – 55 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#77) | 5.5 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#69) | 0.92 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#74) | 1.19 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#63) | 0.536 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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