Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1400 ND +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +2 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -17.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -12.4 (-10.4) | 125.7 (-13.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -13.5 (-11.5) | 131.1 (-19.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -14.1 (-12.1) | 132.1 (-20.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -13.7 (-11.7) | 131.5 (-19.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UVA 100 – 97 ND |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ND 74 – 59 UVA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | UVA 65 – 53 ND |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ND 76 – 54 UVA |
| Jan 29, 2022 | ND 69 – 65 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#27) | -0.8 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#6) | -0.42 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#5) | -0.36 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#9) | 0.467 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 20.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 18.9% |
Game Analysis
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