Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1400 PROV +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -12.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -12.1 (-3.1) | 139.8 (-0.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.9 (-2.9) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.7 (-2.7) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.2 (-3.2) | 141.6 (-2.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 37-3 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 10-10 |
| Home | 17-0 | 14-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 12-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 18.9 (#7) | 10.3 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#3) | 1.70 (#59) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.28 (#3) | 2.34 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.632 (#15) | 0.567 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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