Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1800 PROV +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +6 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -16.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.0 (+1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -14.5 (-8.5) | 158.2 (+9.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -15.4 (-9.4) | 158.5 (+9.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -14.3 (-8.3) | 159.4 (+8.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -15.7 (-9.7) | 156.6 (+11.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
| Feb 1, 2024 | CONN 74 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-6 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 85.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 84.0 |
| Massey | 20.4 (#12) | 7.5 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 5.38 (#3) | 0.54 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.18 (#4) | 1.24 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#4) | 0.510 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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