Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +250 CONN -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -5.3 (-6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -4.2 (-7.8) | 147.3 (-9.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -3.9 (-8.1) | 147.0 (-9.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -3.7 (-8.3) | 147.9 (-9.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -5.6 (-6.4) | 145.7 (-7.7) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
| Feb 1, 2024 | CONN 74 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#91) | 14.4 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#129) | 1.97 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#105) | 2.94 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#172) | 0.554 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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