Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | CONN -1000 PROV +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -16.2 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+31.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -13.3 (-10.3) | 139.5 (+31.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -12.2 (-9.2) | 139.9 (+31.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -11.8 (-8.8) | 139.6 (+31.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -12.9 (-9.9) | 136.7 (+34.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
| Feb 1, 2024 | CONN 74 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#19) | 4.9 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#33) | 0.93 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#30) | 1.50 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#54) | 0.565 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.99 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.2% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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