Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | PROV +333 CONN -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +14 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -8.2 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -6.0 (-8.0) | 140.6 (-6.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -6.6 (-7.4) | 140.0 (-6.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.2 (-7.8) | 140.8 (-6.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.0 (-8.0) | 142.0 (-8.0) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CONN 103 – 98 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Feb 1, 2024 | CONN 74 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-5 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 12-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W13 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#57) | 21.1 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#63) | 3.74 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#57) | 4.42 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#82) | 0.627 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 37.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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