Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | PROV +425 CONN -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +5 | 201 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -9.8 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (+39.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.1 (+2.1) | 148.4 (+52.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -8.2 (+3.2) | 146.7 (+54.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -7.2 (+2.2) | 148.0 (+53.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -8.6 (+3.6) | 148.3 (+52.7) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | CONN 87 – 81 PROV |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CONN 75 – 63 PROV |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CONN 87 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 10, 2024 | CONN 74 – 60 PROV |
| Feb 1, 2024 | CONN 74 – 65 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 34-6 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 17-3 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.3 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.0 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#80) | 21.4 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#93) | 5.00 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#81) | 7.04 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#101) | 0.669 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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