Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -275 UAB +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -10.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -8.4 (-11.4) | 126.5 (+34.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -7.3 (-10.3) | 132.1 (+28.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -8.6 (-11.6) | 133.6 (+27.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -8.1 (-11.1) | 131.6 (+29.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | UNT 62 – 58 UAB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UAB 72 – 68 UNT |
| Mar 15, 2025 | UAB 66 – 56 UNT |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAB 64 – 61 UNT |
| Dec 31, 2024 | UNT 78 – 75 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.4 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#73) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#110) | 1.02 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#92) | 1.05 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#112) | 0.563 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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