Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UL -900 ULM +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UL -15.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -13.3 (-5.3) | 143.4 (+8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -12.8 (-4.8) | 141.7 (+10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -12.5 (-4.5) | 143.5 (+8.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -12.4 (-4.4) | 145.3 (+6.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UL 85 – 79 ULM |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UL 76 – 62 ULM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UL 73 – 69 ULM |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UL 65 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UL 71 – 68 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#129) | -8.6 (#305) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#135) | -1.39 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#131) | -1.66 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#110) | 0.436 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 42.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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