Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.0 Under |
| Money | BEL +300 INST -385 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +6 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -9.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -8.5 (+2.5) | 159.5 (-9.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -8.7 (+2.7) | 160.4 (-10.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -9.2 (+3.2) | 159.9 (-9.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -9.6 (+3.6) | 158.5 (-8.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 INST |
| Dec 30, 2025 | INST 81 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BEL 77 – 75 INST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BEL 84 – 79 INST |
| Jan 13, 2024 | INST 94 – 64 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#167) | 13.3 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#122) | 2.49 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#127) | 2.85 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#108) | 0.605 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 41.1% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 61.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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