Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | INST -700 BEL +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +30 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | INST -13.9 (+16.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -12.1 (+17.9) | 161.2 (-3.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -10.8 (+19.2) | 159.5 (-1.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -11.7 (+18.3) | 159.8 (-1.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -11.4 (+18.6) | 161.1 (-3.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 INST |
| Dec 30, 2025 | INST 81 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BEL 77 – 75 INST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BEL 84 – 79 INST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | INST 78 – 72 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#34) | 2.3 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#36) | 1.20 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#41) | 1.44 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#43) | 0.570 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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