Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Under |
| Money | BEL -225 INST +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +2 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -7.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.6 (-24.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -6.7 (-4.7) | 161.4 (-9.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -6.3 (-4.3) | 164.8 (-12.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -6.2 (-4.2) | 166.1 (-14.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -7.8 (-5.8) | 162.4 (-10.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 INST |
| Dec 30, 2025 | INST 81 – 80 BEL |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BEL 84 – 79 INST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | INST 78 – 72 BEL |
| Jan 13, 2024 | INST 94 – 64 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 81.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#139) | -3.3 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#106) | -0.33 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#124) | -0.46 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#107) | 0.480 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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