Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 171.5 Under |
| Money | INST -160 BEL +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +5 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | INST -1.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 180.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -0.6 (-5.6) | 164.7 (-1.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.5 (-6.5) | 159.9 (+3.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.7 (-5.7) | 164.5 (-1.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -0.8 (-5.8) | 165.6 (-2.6) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 INST |
| Dec 30, 2025 | INST 81 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BEL 77 – 75 INST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | INST 78 – 72 BEL |
| Jan 13, 2024 | INST 94 – 64 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#183) | 1.1 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#193) | 1.00 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#189) | 0.83 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#200) | 0.555 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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