Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | INST +270 BEL -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +1 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -10.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -8.5 (+9.5) | 151.2 (+9.8) | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -8.9 (+9.9) | 153.9 (+7.1) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -9.4 (+10.4) | 150.9 (+10.1) | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -9.5 (+10.5) | 150.9 (+10.1) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 INST |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BEL 77 – 75 INST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BEL 84 – 79 INST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | INST 78 – 72 BEL |
| Jan 13, 2024 | INST 94 – 64 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 26-6 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 83.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#218) | 10.7 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#236) | 2.29 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#246) | 2.88 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#242) | 0.564 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 52.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 61.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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