Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -1000 INST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +17 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -15.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -15.0 (+2.0) | 155.5 (+1.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -12.9 (+4.1) | 154.9 (+2.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -14.1 (+2.9) | 154.1 (+2.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -15.0 (+2.0) | 155.4 (+1.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | INST 81 – 80 BEL |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BEL 77 – 75 INST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | BEL 84 – 79 INST |
| Feb 1, 2024 | INST 78 – 72 BEL |
| Jan 13, 2024 | INST 94 – 64 BEL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-6 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 4-16 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 11-3 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#60) | -2.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#54) | -1.19 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#56) | -1.45 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#46) | 0.440 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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