Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ -1000 CHST +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -15.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -13.3 (-8.3) | 132.6 (-7.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -13.1 (-8.1) | 131.2 (-6.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -13.7 (-8.7) | 130.5 (-5.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -12.9 (-7.9) | 130.9 (-5.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 0-0 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#99) | -7.0 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#102) | -0.97 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#97) | -1.63 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#63) | 0.457 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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