Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse · February 1, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread DUQ -12.5 Away covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money DUQ -1000 / CHST +800
Model Predictions
Spread Total DUQ win
Actual DUQ +5 125 Won
Massey DUQ -15.8 (-10.8)
Massey Totals 131.2 (-6.2)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Efficiency Plus ML DUQ -13.3 (-8.3) 132.6 (-7.6) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML DUQ -13.1 (-8.1) 131.2 (-6.2) 87%
Baseline ML DUQ -13.7 (-8.7) 130.5 (-5.5) 86%
Baseline Plus ML DUQ -12.9 (-7.9) 130.9 (-5.9) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DUQ CHST
Overall 25-12 13-19
Conference 10-8 0-0
Home 13-4 6-5
Away 5-6 5-12
Neutral 7-2 2-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.9 65.2
Avg Pts Against 67.2 71.6
Massey 5.2 (#99) -7.0 (#290)
Bradley-Terry 0.99 (#102) -0.97 (#264)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.26 (#97) -1.63 (#293)
RPI 0.577 (#63) 0.457 (#257)
Shooting & Four Factors DUQ CHST
FG% 42.3% 40.4%
3PT% 32.7% 29.6%
REB / G 35.6 31.4
OREB / G 11.2 11.2
AST / TO 1.06 0.72
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.1% 45.5%
TOV% 17.2% 20.1%
ORB% 30.8% 31.7%
FT Rate 24.5% 27.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.3% 52.9%
Opp TOV% 19.8% 21.9%
DRB% 68.4% 65.1%
Opp FT Rate 25.1% 24.9%

Game Analysis

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