Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UML -450 ME +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +14 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UML -9.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -10.5 (+3.5) | 135.4 (+2.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -8.3 (+5.7) | 135.0 (+3.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -8.2 (+5.8) | 135.9 (+2.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -8.3 (+5.7) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | UML 67 – 56 ME |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UML 91 – 77 ME |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ME 72 – 64 UML |
| Mar 4, 2025 | ME 71 – 70 UML |
| Jan 23, 2025 | ME 86 – 85 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | -3.2 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#118) | -0.84 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#116) | -0.82 (#244) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#133) | 0.464 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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