Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UTU -200 RGV +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -5.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -5.0 (+12.0) | 148.4 (-3.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -4.6 (+12.4) | 148.1 (-3.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -4.9 (+12.1) | 148.0 (-3.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -5.5 (+11.5) | 149.9 (-4.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2024 | UTU 79 – 74 RGV |
| Feb 24, 2023 | UTU 88 – 81 RGV |
| Dec 30, 2022 | UTU 81 – 66 RGV |
| Jan 23, 2022 | UTU 85 – 74 RGV |
| Jan 17, 2021 | RGV 72 – 65 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 2-18 |
| Home | 6-7 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-13 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#288) | -9.2 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#248) | -1.59 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#250) | -2.31 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#236) | 0.416 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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