Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -1.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -1.5 (+9.5) | 154.2 (+4.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -1.3 (+9.7) | 154.8 (+4.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -1.1 (+9.9) | 154.2 (+4.8) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -1.0 (+10.0) | 154.2 (+4.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2024 | UTU 79 – 74 RGV |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UTU 81 – 64 RGV |
| Feb 24, 2023 | UTU 88 – 81 RGV |
| Dec 30, 2022 | UTU 81 – 66 RGV |
| Jan 17, 2021 | RGV 72 – 65 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-6 | 4-9 |
| Away | 3-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 79.7 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#292) | -5.3 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#256) | -1.29 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#265) | -1.47 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#240) | 0.472 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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