Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UTU -500 RGV +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -15.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -11.7 (+3.3) | 153.0 (-6.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -12.3 (+2.7) | 159.0 (-12.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -13.2 (+1.8) | 156.0 (-9.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -13.9 (+1.1) | 154.7 (-7.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2024 | UTU 79 – 74 RGV |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UTU 81 – 64 RGV |
| Feb 24, 2023 | UTU 88 – 81 RGV |
| Jan 23, 2022 | UTU 85 – 74 RGV |
| Jan 17, 2021 | RGV 72 – 65 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#127) | -8.2 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#124) | -0.01 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#135) | -0.44 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#135) | 0.529 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 49.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 37.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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