Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +115 UTU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +7 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | UTU -1.2 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.2 (+9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTU -0.7 (-6.3) | 151.2 (+17.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -0.0 (-7.0) | 153.7 (+15.3) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -0.0 (-7.0) | 153.8 (+15.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -1.1 (-5.9) | 153.4 (+15.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2024 | UTU 79 – 74 RGV |
| Feb 2, 2024 | UTU 81 – 64 RGV |
| Dec 30, 2022 | UTU 81 – 66 RGV |
| Jan 23, 2022 | UTU 85 – 74 RGV |
| Jan 17, 2021 | RGV 72 – 65 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#259) | -0.4 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#213) | -0.44 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#235) | -0.41 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#210) | 0.469 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 30.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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