Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | USC +125 ORE -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +9 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -0.1 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -1.1 (-7.9) | 147.1 (-0.1) | 49% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -0.4 (-9.4) | 144.2 (+2.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -0.4 (-9.4) | 146.1 (+0.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -0.1 (-8.9) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | ORE 82 – 74 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#96) | 9.3 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#140) | 1.74 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#129) | 2.04 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#138) | 0.585 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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