Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USC -245 ORE +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -7.6 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -7.4 (-8.4) | 148.1 (-7.1) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -7.1 (-8.1) | 148.0 (-7.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -7.3 (-8.3) | 146.8 (-5.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USC -7.2 (-8.2) | 147.5 (-6.5) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | ORE 82 – 74 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#59) | 5.2 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#37) | 0.42 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#47) | 0.67 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#43) | 0.500 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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