Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ORE +130 USC -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | USC -8.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -8.3 (+3.3) | 158.5 (+0.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -5.7 (+0.7) | 159.4 (-0.4) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -7.1 (+2.1) | 156.6 (+2.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -6.4 (+1.4) | 157.3 (+1.7) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | ORE 82 – 74 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#185) | 12.4 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#215) | 3.93 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#206) | 5.77 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.497 (#179) | 0.714 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 37.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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