Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ORE -320 USC +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +21 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -7.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -7.9 (+13.1) | 150.5 (-7.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -8.2 (+12.8) | 151.2 (-8.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -7.4 (+13.6) | 152.8 (-9.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -7.8 (+13.2) | 153.3 (-10.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | ORE 82 – 74 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#37) | 9.4 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#21) | 1.30 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#26) | 2.06 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#14) | 0.540 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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