Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ORE -155 USC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ORE -5.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -5.4 (+2.6) | 150.2 (+5.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -4.1 (+3.9) | 149.3 (+6.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -5.0 (+3.0) | 148.5 (+7.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -4.9 (+3.1) | 148.8 (+7.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Dec 5, 2024 | ORE 68 – 60 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#64) | 7.6 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#76) | 0.79 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#73) | 1.28 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#40) | 0.530 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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