Betting Lines
| Spread | ORE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | USC +220 ORE -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORE +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | ORE -8.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORE -6.6 (-1.4) | 144.6 (-16.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORE -7.2 (-0.8) | 142.9 (-14.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORE -6.2 (-1.8) | 143.3 (-15.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORE -6.0 (-2.0) | 144.2 (-16.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ORE 71 – 70 USC |
| Dec 3, 2025 | USC 82 – 77 ORE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ORE 82 – 61 USC |
| Feb 2, 2024 | ORE 78 – 69 USC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | ORE 82 – 74 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-7 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#157) | 13.5 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#134) | 4.51 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#122) | 6.40 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#166) | 0.737 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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