Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -333 LONG +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +17 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -6.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -4.3 (+12.7) | 146.3 (+22.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -6.0 (+11.0) | 147.1 (+21.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -6.1 (+10.9) | 147.2 (+21.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -6.7 (+10.3) | 148.8 (+20.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HPU 71 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HPU 80 – 67 LONG |
| Feb 14, 2025 | HPU 83 – 72 LONG |
| Jan 17, 2025 | LONG 82 – 80 HPU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | LONG 80 – 79 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#125) | 0.2 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#79) | -0.49 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#79) | -0.69 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#97) | 0.471 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 36.7% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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