Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | ASU -111 STAN -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +9 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ASU -1.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -2.2 (-11.2) | 147.1 (-14.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -2.7 (-11.7) | 148.6 (-15.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -1.5 (-10.5) | 150.5 (-17.5) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -1.3 (-10.3) | 146.7 (-13.7) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2023 | ASU 76 – 73 STAN |
| Feb 10, 2023 | ASU 69 – 65 STAN |
| Dec 5, 2022 | ASU 68 – 64 STAN |
| Mar 9, 2022 | STAN 71 – 70 ASU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | ASU 65 – 56 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#116) | 5.3 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#96) | 0.65 (#122) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#97) | 1.01 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#89) | 0.515 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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