Betting Lines
| Spread | ASU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +9 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | ASU -4.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ASU -5.4 (+3.6) | 130.4 (-9.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ASU -3.9 (+5.1) | 130.5 (-9.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ASU -5.6 (+3.4) | 131.3 (-10.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ASU -5.3 (+3.7) | 131.5 (-10.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2024 | STAN 71 – 62 ASU |
| Dec 30, 2023 | ASU 76 – 73 STAN |
| Feb 10, 2023 | ASU 69 – 65 STAN |
| Dec 5, 2022 | ASU 68 – 64 STAN |
| Mar 9, 2022 | STAN 71 – 70 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#99) | 4.3 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#91) | 1.27 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.28 (#96) | 1.41 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#89) | 0.531 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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