Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | STAN -235 ASU +192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ASU +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | STAN -6.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -4.5 (-7.5) | 142.5 (+6.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -5.0 (-8.0) | 148.5 (+0.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -4.5 (-7.5) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -4.1 (-7.1) | 142.7 (+6.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 2, 2024 | STAN 71 – 62 ASU |
| Feb 10, 2023 | ASU 69 – 65 STAN |
| Dec 5, 2022 | ASU 68 – 64 STAN |
| Mar 9, 2022 | STAN 71 – 70 ASU |
| Mar 5, 2022 | ASU 65 – 56 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#123) | 0.9 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#184) | 0.85 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#174) | 1.18 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#191) | 0.558 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 15.5% |
Game Analysis
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