Betting Lines
| Spread | ACU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ACU -120 TAR +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ACU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -0.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -0.4 (-2.6) | 140.4 (+8.6) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -0.5 (-3.5) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -0.1 (-3.1) | 142.1 (+6.9) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -0.4 (-2.6) | 141.9 (+7.1) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 16-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#241) | -0.9 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#246) | 0.42 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#235) | 0.54 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#265) | 0.529 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ACU | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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