Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -900 UALB +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +22 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -10.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -12.7 (+9.3) | 144.5 (-4.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -10.6 (+11.4) | 147.1 (-7.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -10.8 (+11.2) | 145.9 (-5.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -10.8 (+11.2) | 144.9 (-4.9) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-5 |
| Away | 10-4 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#111) | -3.0 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#73) | -0.36 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#77) | -0.58 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#72) | 0.489 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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