Don't you understand that's not my problem? "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Ohio Valley Conference · First Community Arena · February 2, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SIUE -2.5 Away covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money SIUE -138 / LR +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total SIUE win
Actual SIUE +2 134 Won
Massey SIUE -5.2 (-3.2) — —
Massey Totals — 148.5 (-14.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 76% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 76% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SIUE -4.3 (-2.3) 143.0 (-9.0) 67% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SIUE -3.8 (-1.8) 142.3 (-8.3) 70% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SIUE -4.4 (-2.4) 141.7 (-7.7) 70% ✓
Baseline ML SIUE -4.6 (-2.6) 142.3 (-8.3) 62% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 SIUE 71 – 61 LR
Jan 9, 2026 LR 73 – 70 SIUE
Mar 1, 2025 SIUE 73 – 65 LR
Dec 20, 2024 LR 60 – 56 SIUE
Jan 5, 2024 LR 88 – 80 SIUE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SIUE LR
Overall 17-16 21-13
Conference 9-9 14-4
Home 12-2 14-4
Away 2-13 6-6
Neutral 3-1 1-3
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 69.4 77.3
Avg Pts Against 71.0 72.5
Massey -4.4 (#252) -6.0 (#278)
Bradley-Terry -0.63 (#239) -1.15 (#283)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.81 (#242) -1.22 (#272)
RPI 0.466 (#239) 0.407 (#326)
Shooting & Four Factors SIUE LR
FG% 41.5% 45.8%
3PT% 34.7% 32.6%
REB / G 34.2 36.0
OREB / G 10.2 11.5
AST / TO 0.96 1.19
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.8% 51.3%
TOV% 15.9% 16.9%
ORB% 29.3% 31.4%
FT Rate 23.9% 26.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.6% 51.3%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 18.2%
DRB% 69.6% 69.1%
Opp FT Rate 24.0% 31.3%

Game Analysis

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