Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | LR -165 SIUE +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +4 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | LR -1.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -1.7 (+2.3) | 135.6 (-19.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -2.0 (+2.0) | 134.2 (-18.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -2.3 (+1.7) | 132.8 (-16.8) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -1.9 (+2.1) | 133.2 (-17.2) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SIUE 71 – 61 LR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | LR 73 – 70 SIUE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SIUE 73 – 65 LR |
| Feb 2, 2024 | SIUE 68 – 66 LR |
| Jan 5, 2024 | LR 88 – 80 SIUE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#264) | -2.6 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#189) | -0.38 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#180) | -0.87 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#193) | 0.462 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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