Betting Lines
| Spread | MORE -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | TNST +180 MORE -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORE +19 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | MORE -3.6 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORE -2.5 (-16.5) | 135.6 (-18.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORE -4.1 (-14.9) | 135.8 (-18.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORE -3.2 (-15.8) | 136.0 (-19.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MORE -2.6 (-16.4) | 136.6 (-19.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TNST 93 – 67 MORE |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MORE 94 – 86 TNST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TNST 105 – 100 MORE |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TNST 64 – 55 MORE |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MORE 74 – 68 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#237) | 3.3 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#247) | 0.89 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#249) | 0.92 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.459 (#249) | 0.546 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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