Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | TNST -225 MORE +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +9 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -8.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -6.8 (+2.2) | 142.4 (-23.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -5.6 (+3.4) | 143.4 (-24.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -6.2 (+2.8) | 145.0 (-26.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -6.1 (+2.9) | 143.7 (-24.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TNST 93 – 67 MORE |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MORE 94 – 86 TNST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TNST 105 – 100 MORE |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MORE 74 – 68 TNST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MORE 68 – 49 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#253) | -10.8 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#283) | -1.29 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#289) | -2.16 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#257) | 0.466 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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