Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -225 MORE +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +26 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -5.3 (+20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -3.5 (+22.5) | 142.6 (+17.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -5.3 (+20.7) | 141.8 (+18.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -3.9 (+22.1) | 141.0 (+19.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -3.5 (+22.5) | 140.5 (+19.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MORE 94 – 86 TNST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | TNST 105 – 100 MORE |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TNST 64 – 55 MORE |
| Dec 21, 2024 | MORE 74 – 68 TNST |
| Feb 2, 2024 | MORE 68 – 49 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 10-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#194) | -7.2 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#154) | -0.40 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#177) | -0.86 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#95) | 0.508 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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